Some idle speculation on the future of the PPP
From the Blog FiveRupees - Some idle speculation on the future of the PPP October 26th, 2010 I must confess that I fully expect the contents of this post to be viciously torn down by those who know more about the PPP than I do (such as, inter alia , twitter users takhalus , Rabia , Shahid Saeed etc). Be that as it may, it’s sometimes worth getting shot down to see what is actually true and what isn’t. Anyway, the very simple and uneducated point I want to make is that if someone gave me decent odds on the eventuality, I would bet a decent amount of money on the PPP splitting some time in the next few years. Either just before or, more likely, just after the next election, I think we may see some elements within the PPP being kicked out of the party, and yet other elements walking out of the party, and those two groups joining forces and leaving a rump party behind. The only reason I say is that I look at the current model of PPP politics as unsustainable, in the truest sense of the word. I look at Pakistan today, and what I see is an increasingly urban electorate. Over the last 30 years, many, many people have moved to the cities — either because of greater economic opportunities, the degradation of viable farming opportunities, war, or, most recently, floods. And this electorate is not amenable to capture or patronage the old PPP way. To be somewhat glib about it, you can’t govern 2010 Pakistan from Larkana — and certainly not when you have Geo around to highlight (and invent) your mistakes. This disjunct in models of politics has real, substantive and meaningful effects on the type of politician that can work the wheels of government. It seems to me that the PPP has basically two types of politicians: the urban scotch drinkers, and the pirs/seths . People like Sherry Rehman, Aitzaz Ahsan, and Husain Haqqani are simply a different breed of personality to people like Yousuf Raza Gilani, Asif Zardari, and Syeda Abida Hussain. That’s not to say they can’t get along or don’t see eye to eye on certain issues, but fundamentally, they are another species. Not necessarily better or worse — just different. So my guess is that in 2013, when the PPP gets its ass handed to it, and they realize that not all its misfortunes can be laid at the door of the establishment — that, shock and horror, they’ve made serious mistakes that they will be held accountable for — we’re going to see some self-reflection. Remember, the PPP has never had to do this in its entire history; it has always had the (somewhat justifable) establishment bogeyman to pin its failures on. But if — big if — we actually see a free and fair election in 2013, these people are in for a rude, rude shock. And my feeling is that such an outcome may promote a split along rural/urban lines (although such a split will be sort of artificial given all the rural folk now live in cities; check out the addresses of the senior PPP wallahs here ). All this speculation was prompted by reading this Daily Times editorial on the treatment meted out Sherry Rehman, amongst others, for ignoring the party ban on the Jang Group. Whatever the merits of the case, it does seem strange to me — again, from a distance — that such a party stalwart would be treated this way. Even leaving that aside, I can see people like Sherry Rehman serving at the pleasure of Zardari and Gillani, but I’m sorry, I can’t see people like her swallowing this Bilalwal shit in 15 years. Moreover, when you think about certain PPP upstarts, like the Jamshed Dastis of the world , it does look like some of this change is already afoot, and is just waiting for formalization. … Five Rupees
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