A callous waste of opportunity
From the Blog PkColumnist.com: A callous waste of opportunity - Our politicians and rulers are very good at distorting facts, issuing misleading statements and making false promises. However, it is extremely important that professionals and technocrats never indulge in such disinformation. It is their duty to the nation to speak the truth. In this connection I would like to draw your attention to the statement given by the new chairman of the PAEC, Dr Ansar Parvez, in Vienna to the 54th General Conference of the IAEA (The News, Sept 23). He disclosed that the PAEC was planning to generate 8,800 megawatts of nuclear energy by 2030. The aging Kanupp, designed to generate 137 MW, now usually produces about 80 MW. Chashnupp-I, supplied by China, produces about 300 MW. Chashnupp-II, due to go online next year, is expected to produce 300 MW. The plans to produce 8,800 MW in 20 years' time are, therefore, a bit unrealistic. If we install 300 MW plants, we need to be constructing 29 such plants; if we install 900 MW plants, we would still need nine or ten of these. A nuclear plant of 300 MW costs about one billion dollars and takes nine to ten years to complete. All the relevant data is available from Chasnupp-I. How are we going to produce the amount of money required in such a short span of time? Another important factor is availability of the huge quantity of fuel needed. As far as I can guess, KRL would have to undergo major expansion to meet this demand. The statement reminded me of an interview by the late Munir Ahmad Khan, then chairman of the PAEC, thirty-odd years ago. He said that from 1980 onwards, the PAEC would install one reactor every year, and by the year 2000, it would have installed 20 reactors. Only Chashnupp-I was commissioned, about ten years ago. There have been many reports about the coal reserves at Thar and the quality thereof. In his column of July 4, Dr Farrukh Saleem dealt with the claims and the facts regarding the Thar Coal Project. He pointed out that, contrary to the claimed deposits of 185 billion tons, we have only three billion tons, and this includes low-grade lignite. Lignite is a middle state between wood and coal. It is dried, pressed into blocks and then used as fuel. Its usual content is 30 per cent coal and 15 to 20 per cent ash, and the rest is moisture. The energy content depends upon the quality of the lignite, which varies between 10 and 15 BTU per ton. This type of coal is cheaper but has limited international trade value. In the article, Dr Saleem answered, point by point, all the claims made by the authorities and it appears that we are wishing for the moon as far as Thar coal is concerned. He also contradicted the claim of 175 billion tons of reserves suitable for producing one hundred thousand megawatts of power. Our history shows that we are very good at making tall, unsubstantiated claims. Besides Engro Pakistan (which has signed an MoU for a small project), there are two British Consultants, Oracle Coal Field and Cougar Energy. Some unnamed foreign company has also been mentioned, which will determine the price of the coal. A Canadian company, SNC Lavelin, is to estimate the costs of the required transmission lines. But any project that offers good returns attracts a number of international investors (as in Balochistan). In Thar we see only consultants, with little interest in investment. An important fact about the Thar Coal Project which is not known to the public is the callous attitude of Pakistani officials that led to the loss of a golden opportunity eight or nine years ago. A dear friend, Riaz M Khan, a former foreign secretary, was our ambassador to China at the time. Riaz, who had previously been posted to our embassy in Beijing, had working knowledge of Chinese and thus had a very good working relationship with Chinese officials. He had managed to convince Shenfa State Corporation of China to become involved in the Thar Project, and in this connection he had arranged a meeting between the president of Shenfa and Pakistan officials, including the chairman of WAPDA. The meeting took place in Beijing and the Shenfa president showed keen interest in the development of this project. He offered to produce electricity at the rate of 5.89 cents per unit with a commitment to deliver two power plants of 325 MW each by the end of 2009, and two similar plants by the end of 2010. However, it requires people with knowledge and foresight to grab such an opportunity when it is offered. The Pakistani delegation bickered, and insisted on a price below 5.5 cents per unit. Due to Riaz Khan's efforts and special requests, a price of 5.39 cents per unit was agreed upon. However, since there were no big cuts or commissions to be made, the project was dumped and China was never given a positive response. The WAPDA chairman even had the cheek to remark to Riaz Khan that he did not want to be hanged for signing such an expensive deal! As the president of Shenfa had pointed out, working conditions were close to unbearable in the area and he had to pay good salaries and perks in order to attract staff for the job efficiently. Now we are not only paying almost four times that much per unit but also facing the curse of extended load-shedding. We are all aware of the discussions about the wonders of solar energy, wind energy and hydroelectric power. None of these technologies have so far been vigorously pursued to help generate the urgently needed power. The promises made by the prime minister and Raja Pervez Ashraf have proved to be false and illusive. For any project or programme to be successful, there are two essential requirements: a qualified, competent, knowledgeable project head, and total commitment by the government to pursue that goal. The competence of the team leader is reflected in his selection of reliable, competent, experienced colleagues to achieve the goal, while the government should handle such a project on war footing. For the successful completion of a project such as Thar, there is need for highly competent, qualified and experienced chemical engineers supported by a team of mechanical, computer software and metallurgical engineers. I am not aware of such a team existing. We could still go to China to seek their assistance in completing this project of national interest. It may still not be too late. . Read Full Post
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